2010年至2030年中国的LDL-C相关心血管负担:时空模式和基于场景的预测
Yixin Tian1, Xue Cao1, Xin Wang1
1Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Disease, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
|November 14, 2025
概括
高水平的LDL-C是中国日益严重的公共卫生问题,导致死亡人数和丧失的生命年数显著增加. 迫切需要全民控制措施和他类药物治疗来减轻这种负担.
科学领域:
- 心血管流行病学心血管流行病学
- 公共卫生研究 公共卫生研究
- 预防医学 预防医学
背景情况:
- 之前的研究量化了全球和高收入国家的高低密度脂蛋白胆固醇 (LDL-C) 负担.
- 在中国,因高LDL-C而产生的特定疾病负担尚不完全理解.
研究的目的:
- 在2010年至2020年期间,系统地评估中国高LDL-C的疾病负担.
- 预测到2030年,中国的高LDL-C可归因于疾病负担.
主要方法:
- 利用基于人口的研究设计,采用了来自644,189名成年人的数据,跨越了三个大规模的代表性调查.
- 采用比较风险评估方法来量化因高LDL-C而丧失的死亡和生命年数.
- 进行了分解分析,以确定可归因死亡的变化驱动因素,并在各种LDL-C控制场景下使用比例变化模型对2030年的预测.
主要成果:
- 2020年,根据年龄标准化的LDL-C水平为112.33 mg/dL (2.91 mmol/L).
- 估计造成的死亡和丧失的生命年数分别为813.53万和16108.31万.
- 在2010年至2020年期间,年龄标准化的死亡率增加了34.41%,死亡人数增加了94.02%,主要原因是LDL-C水平上升,人口增长和老龄化. 预测表明,如果不进行干预,到2030年死亡率可能翻一番;为了降低死亡率,需要减少10%的LDL-C.
结论:
- 高的LDL-C在中国是一个重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 死亡率上升的负担需要立即实施全民范围的LDL-C控制策略.
- 扩大国家对他类药物治疗的覆盖范围对于解决这个日益严重的健康问题至关重要.
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