使用马尔科夫建模来理解严重精神疾病的无家可归人口的动态
Rachel M Smith1, Sherry Glied2
1Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Maryland, College Park.
支持性住房可以帮助患有严重精神疾病的个人,但其在减少慢性无家可归者的有效性受到动态人口过渡的限制. 了解这些转变对于有效的政策至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 心理健康服务 心理健康服务
背景情况:
- 严重精神疾病 (SMI) 患者无家可归是一个复杂的问题.
- 了解人口动态 (进出住房的流动) 对于有效的干预至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往不能完全捕捉到无家可归的流动性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个住房干预模型,以考虑无家可归人口中无家可归者的动态性质.
- 预测支持性住房和保留干预措施对这一群体的影响.
主要方法:
- 一个四个状态的马尔科夫模型是为纽约市SMI的成年人开发的.
- 该模型结合了来自美国人口普查和HUD的数据.
- 过渡概率基于先前的研究,并对稳定状态估计进行校准.
主要成果:
- 增加了2000个支持性住房单位,使慢性无家可归人口减少了大约1000人.
- 住房保留干预措施显示了适度的额外效应.
- 无家可归者进入和离开无家可归者的过渡率,包括制度化和死亡,是关键的驱动因素.
结论:
- 适度的过渡率需要大量的住房投资,以显著减少慢性无家可归者.
- 无家可归人口的动态性质使SMI患者的政策制定变得复杂.
- 支持性住房是有益的,但需要仔细考虑人口流动动态.
更多相关视频
05:52Handwriting Analysis Indicates Spontaneous Dyskinesias in Neuroleptic Naïve Adolescents at High Risk for Psychosis
Published on: November 21, 2013
10:46A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
相关概念视频
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention II
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results...
Community Based Intervention
Foundations of Community Mental Health Programs
Central to the success of community-based interventions is the...
Modeling in Therapy
Participant Modeling
Participant modeling involves therapists demonstrating calm and effective behaviors in...
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
Methods of Documentation VI: Case Management Model
For example, a patient with a chronic...
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention I
The health belief model (HBM) attempts to predict health-related behavior in specific belief patterns. According to the HBM, a person's...
