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日常温度波动的动态演变和全球范围内的人口暴露

Hongju Chen¹, JianPing Yang², Chunping Tan³

¹School of Traffic and Transportation, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, China.

|November 14, 2025

概括

全球日间温度差 (DTD) 已经下降,但人口对DTD的暴露显著增加. 这凸显了温度变化带来的持续风险,影响了气候适应力和公共卫生战略.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
环境健康环境健康
地理空间分析的研究.

背景情况:

日常温度差异 (DTD) 的时空变化对于评估气候变化对健康和生态系统的影响至关重要.
了解人口对DTD的暴露对于有效的适应策略至关重要.

研究的目的:

对DTD时空模式和2000年至2022年的人口暴露进行全面的全球分析.
量化气候因素和人口变化对暴露变化的贡献.
评估DTD动态和人口分布之间的相互作用.

主要方法:

使用CPC全球统一测量器基于每日分析 (CPC GU-GDAD) 数据集进行DTD分析.
使用LandScan全球人口数据来评估人口暴露.
气候和人口因素对暴露变化的量化趋势和贡献.

主要成果:

观察到DTD趋势的全球下降 (-0.055°C/十年的最大温度, -0.042°C/十年的最小温度).
揭示了人口暴露于DTD的每年显著增加 (最大为2064人·°C,最小为1648人·°C).
在DTD中注意到明显的半球不对称性,在北半球有更高的值.

结论:

尽管DTD变异性下降,但人口暴露率上升,表明持续或加剧的风险.
调查结果支持在城市规划和公共卫生方面需要适应战略.
强调在应对气候变化的努力中考虑DTD的重要性,特别是在高度变化的地区.

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