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不同的抗原距离指标产生类似的预测流感疫苗响应宽度尽管中等相关性

W Zane Billings^1,2, Yang Ge¹, Amanda L Skarlupka³

¹Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America.

PLoS computational biology

|November 14, 2025

概括

在流感疫苗中测量抗原距离的不同方法对疫苗有效性的预测结果相似. 更简单的,基于序列的指标可能足够,减少了昂贵测试的需要.

科学领域:

免疫学免疫学免疫学
病毒学病毒学
疫苗学疫苗学疫苗学

背景情况:

流感病毒不断演变,需要经常更新疫苗.
疫苗和循环菌株之间的抗原差异影响疫苗的有效性 (VE).
量化抗原距离有助于 VE 的解释.

研究的目的:

为了比较不同的抗原距离指标如何影响疫苗诱导抗体反应宽度的预测.
评估各种抗原距离测量的实用性.

主要方法:

分析了季节性流感疫苗队列数据 (2013/14-2017/18).
计算了四种抗原距离指标:时间,基于序列的 (p-Epitope),生物物理 (格兰瑟姆的) 和血清学 (抗原地图).
使用贝叶斯模型根据抗原距离预测疫苗接种后标位,控制混因素.

主要成果:

抗原距离指标显示,大多数流感亚型 (A(H1N1),B/Victoria,B/Yamagata) 的相关性低至中等.
A(H3N2) 距离在各个指标之间高度相关.
尽管存在相关性差异,但所有指标都预测了几乎相同的疫苗接种后标位,A(H3N2的小偏差).

结论:

不同的抗原距离指标产生了类似的疫苗反应范围的预测.
更简单的基于序列的指标可能足以量化疫苗的范围,可能取代昂贵的血清学测试.

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