严重的洪水大大降低了全球大米产量
Zhi Li1, Lorenzo Rosa1,2, Steven Gorelick1,3
1Department of Earth System Science, Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Science advances
|November 14, 2025
概括
由于洪水导致全球大米作物淹没,导致产量大幅下降,影响粮食安全. 开发抗洪米品种对于减轻这些日益增加的风险至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
- 粮食安全 粮食安全
背景情况:
- 米是全球的主要粮食,对于养活全球一半以上的人口至关重要.
- 虽然干旱对大米产量的影响是已知的,但由于洪水 (>1周) 导致长时间的作物淹没往往是无法生存的.
- 极端天气事件的频率越来越高,对大米生产构成越来越大的威胁.
研究的目的:
- 评估米作物沉没对1980年至2015年产量损失的因果影响.
- 量化因洪水事件造成的全球和区域产量减少.
- 预测产量损失的未来趋势,并为适应策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用洪水动态模型来模拟洪水场景.
- 采用差异差异分析来确定沉没和收益率下降之间的因果关系.
- 分析了从1980年到2015年的数据,以捕捉长期趋势.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,洪水每年平均减少4.3%的产.
- 中国东海岸面临着特别严重的损失,平均每年14%.
- 自2000年以来,由于越来越频繁的极端洪水事件,产量损失有所增加.
结论:
- 这项研究强调了水灾引起的产损失对全球粮食安全的不断升级的威胁.
- 发展抗洪水品种对于降低风险至关重要.
- 综合适应策略应对洪水和干旱影响,是抵御农业的必要条件.
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