在CRSwNP中验证早期聚复发的风险预测得分
Junqin Bai1, Lutfiyya N Muhammad2, Aditi Agarwal3
1Department of Otolaryngology, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Ill; Division of Allergy and Immunology, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Ill.
The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology
|November 14, 2025
概括
一个新的风险预测得分 (RPS) 有效地识别了经过手术后高风险复发 (PR) 的鼻息肉 (CRSwNP) 慢性鼻炎患者. 这种工具有助于预测在内镜外科手术 (ESS) 后的多复发时间更短.
科学领域:
- 耳鼻喉科 耳鼻喉科 耳鼻喉科
- 免疫学 免疫学 免疫学
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
背景情况:
- 息肉复发 (PR) 是患有鼻息肉复发 (CRSwNP) 慢性鼻炎的患者在内镜后鼻手术 (ESS) 后面的一个挑战.
- 一个先前的模型使用生物标记物 (乙氨基酸酸蛋白[ECP],IL-5,抗dsDNAIgG) 和临床因素 (放射学评分,喘) 预测了PR.
研究的目的:
- 在ESS之后为PR开发一个经过验证的风险预测得分 (RPS).
- 评估RPS根据多复发的时间对患者进行分层的能力.
主要方法:
- 两个潜在的CRSwNP队列 (培训和验证) 被跟踪了25年后的ESS.
- 生物标志物水平 (ECP,IL-5,抗dsDNAIgG) 和临床数据在基线收集.
- 使用模型系数生成RPS;通过ROC分析评估预测准确度,通过Cox回归评估复发时间.
主要成果:
- 综合ECP,IL-5,抗dsDNA IgG,喘和放射评分的RPS显示出良好的预测准确性 (验证时AUC为0.76).
- 该RPS有效地将患者分为低风险,中风险和高风险组.
- 高风险患者的中位时间至多复发 (38个月) 与中位 (54个月) 和低风险 (60个月) 组相比显著缩短.
结论:
- 经过验证的RPS准确地预测了在独立的CRSwNP队列中ESS后的息肉复发.
- RPS有效地识别了具有明显较短复发时间的高风险个体.
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