优化太阳能发电预测,利用光伏电网连接系统的元启发算法和深度学习模型来优化太阳能发电预测
Putri Nor Liyana Mohamad Radzi1, Saad Mekhilef2,3, Noraisyah Mohamed Shah4
1Power Electronics and Renewable Energy Research Laboratory (PEARL), Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. 17013615@siswa.um.edu.my.
Scientific reports
|November 14, 2025
概括
准确的太阳能预报对于电网稳定性至关重要. 一个新的火优化-门式循环单元-长期短期存储器 (FHO-GRU-LSTM) 模型显著提高了光伏系统的预测准确性.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 电网中的人工智能
- 深度学习用于预测.
背景情况:
- 全球光伏系统集成到电网的加速加速需要精确的太阳能预测.
- 优化能源调度,电网可靠性和大规模可再生能源生产取决于准确的预测.
- 现有的预测方法可能缺乏复杂的电网集成所需的稳定性.
研究的目的:
- 提出和评估一种新的混合深度学习模型,用于增强太阳能预测.
- 通过顺序组合,利用封闭的反复单元 (GRU) 和长期短期存储器 (LSTM) 网络的优势.
- 为了优化模型的超参数,使用自然灵感的Fire Hawk优化 (FHO) 算法来实现卓越的性能.
主要方法:
- 开发一个FHO-GRU-LSTM模型,将GRU和LSTM网络与FHO优化的超参数结合起来.
- 使用基于时间的时间索引和递归预测策略来训练模型.
- 在PEARL系统中对两个不同的光伏技术 (多晶阵列1和单晶阵列2) 的评估.
主要成果:
- 在太阳能发电预测方面,FHO-GRU-LSTM模型表现出卓越的准确性和稳定性.
- 获得了0.9964 (数组1) 和0.9966 (数组2) 的高R2分数.
- 在两个数组中,根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和平均绝对误差 (MAE) 的显著减少为12.67-24.52%.
结论:
- 先进的超参数调整,以FHO为例,对于增强深度学习模型通用性至关重要.
- FHO-GRU-LSTM模型为改善电网稳定性和可持续的可再生能源整合提供了一个强大的解决方案.
- 该研究强调了混合深度学习方法在应对现代电网管理方面的挑战方面的潜力.
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