房价上,生育率下降吗? 房价上如何扩大所有制群体之间的生育率差异
Daniël van Wijk1, Peteke Feijten2
1Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, KNAW/University of Groningen, The Hague, The Netherlands. wijk@nidi.nl.
European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie
|November 14, 2025
概括
房价上降低了年轻人的生育率,特别是租户,但增加了长期房主. 这种住房市场的动态可能导致出生率下降.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 过去十年来,发达国家房价迅速上的全球趋势.
- 同时降低生育率,特别是在年轻人中.
- 对个人层面的机制,连接住房成本和生育决定的理解有限.
研究的目的:
- 研究区域房价变化与生育率之间的关系.
- 检查房屋所有权在这种关系中的调解和调节作用.
- 了解房地产市场动态如何影响生育行为.
主要方法:
- 利用涵盖整个人口的荷兰综合登记数据 (2012-2023年).
- 将区域性房价变化 (NUTS-3地区) 与年度构想风险联系起来.
- 分析了个人房屋所有权状况和持续时间对生育结果的影响.
主要成果:
- 房价上与整体生育率下降有关.
- 降低生育率的部分原因是年轻成年人对房屋所有权的倾向下降.
- 昂贵市场的租户的生育率下降,而房主的生育率增加.
- 对于拥有住房超过三年的房主来说,观察到对生育率产生积极的住房股权效应.
结论:
- 房价上可能会导致2010年后年轻人群的生育率下降.
- 住房市场的动态加剧了房屋所有者和租户之间的生育差异.
- 房屋所有权持续时间显著影响生育率对住房市场变化的反应.
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