优化以年龄为基础的向在冰鞋分销计划中,以预防冬季秋季伤害:一个成本效益建模研究
Carl Bonander1,2, Johanna Gustavsson3, Ulf Strömberg4
1School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden. carl.bonander@gu.se.
Injury epidemiology
|November 14, 2025
概括
向55岁及以上的成年人分发冰棒比通用计划更具成本效益. 将资格范围扩大到中年成年人可以进一步改善公共卫生结果并减少摔倒伤害.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 伤害预防 预防伤害
背景情况:
- 在寒冷的气候下,在冰上和雪上摔倒造成的伤害对公众健康构成重大挑战.
- 冰配送计划存在,但通常仅限于老年人 (≥65岁).
- 不同的冰分布策略的相对成本效益仍然被低估.
研究的目的:
- 评估各种基于年龄的冰分布策略的成本效益.
- 为了确定最佳的年龄门,冰球的资格.
- 为了比较目标分布与普遍或没有分布.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个整合当地平均治疗效果和健康信念模型的队列模拟模型.
- 该模型纳入了特定年龄的伤害风险,合规率,成本和质量调整后生命年 (QALY) 损失.
- 从社会角度评估成本效益,使用概率敏感性分析.
主要成果:
- 冰分销的最佳资格门被确定为≥55岁 (可接受范围:42-72).
- 在特定的条件下 (限制性采购,针对非用户) 可以接受普遍发行,但不太可能是最佳的.
- 当行为变化是短暂的或仅从医疗保健的角度来看待成本时,没有分配是最好的.
结论:
- 针对年龄的冰盖分发比普遍提供更具成本效益,更好于不分发.
- 目前只针对老年人 (≥65) 的计划可能是不理想的.
- 向中年成年人扩大冰的资格,可以提高社会成本效益,减少跌伤.
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