通过基于代理的模拟来发现运输场景对环境健康的影响
Tabea S Sonnenschein1, Simon Scheider2, G Ardine de Wit3
1Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, The Netherlands; Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, The Netherlands; Institute of Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, The Netherlands.
Environment international
|November 15, 2025
概括
使用基于代理的模型的城市规划可以揭示干预措施对健康的影响. 模拟显示排放区可以减少空气污染并促进活动,但可能会增加一些居民的旅行时间.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 城市规划显著影响环境健康和社会公平.
- 基于代理的建模 (ABM) 提供了一个强大的工具来模拟复杂的城市动态及其对健康的影响.
- 了解城市干预,流动性和公共卫生之间的相互作用对于可持续城市发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 证明基于代理物的模拟在确定城市干预场景的预期和非预期的环境健康影响和社会不平等方面具有实用性.
- 为阿姆斯特丹开发,校准和验证一个基于实证的基于代理的模型 (UrbHealth-ABM),整合关键的城市系统.
- 预测具体的城市规划干预措施对健康和公平的影响,包括2030年无排放区和15分钟城市概念.
主要方法:
- 开发和验证UrbHealth-ABM,这是阿姆斯特丹的一个基于代理的模型,整合了个人流动,交通,空气污染,身体活动和个人暴露的数据.
- 利用2019年的停车价格上作为一个自然实验,以校准和验证模型的交通减少预测准确性.
- 运行2030年预测的无排放区和各种15分钟城市场景的模拟,以评估对空气污染暴露和体力活动的影响.
主要成果:
- 模型验证证实了在2019年停车价格上后预测交通减少的准确性.
- 预计到2030年,无排放区将显著减少所有居民的二氧化 (NO2) 暴露,并增加与交通有关的体力活动,特别是在较不富裕的郊区人口中.
- 15分钟的城市场景显示了整体的NO2暴露减少,但由于较短的积极旅行距离,与运输相关的体力活动的潜在减少,以及对某些群体的旅行时间增加的担忧.
结论:
- 基于代理的建模是有效的评估多方面的城市规划对环境健康和社会公平的影响.
- 虽然减排战略显示出大众健康的好处,如减少空气污染和增加体力活动,但必须仔细考虑公平影响,例如增加某些人口统计学者的旅行时间.
- 城市规划干预措施,包括15分钟的城市概念,需要细微的评估,以平衡诸如减少暴露等利益与诸如改变活动水平和旅行负担等潜在缺点.
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