沙特阿拉伯的燃料间替代管理和碳减排:基于2060年碳中和计划的证据
Guangwei Zhang1, Muhammad Yousaf Raza1
1School of Economics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong, 264005, China.
Journal of environmental management
|November 15, 2025
概括
沙特阿拉伯可以通过技术进步和从石油转向低碳能源,到2060年实现碳中和. 这一转型得到了天然气和电力在生产中替代石油的支持.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 沙特阿拉伯是全球主要的能源消费国,主要使用石油,天然气和可再生能源.
- 了解能源因素的相互作用及其对二氧化碳排放的影响对于可持续性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析沙特阿拉伯的能源和非能源因素的输出弹性,替代弹性和技术进步.
- 基于燃料技术的二氧化碳排放模型,并探索实现碳中和的途径.
- 确定影响生产和减排的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 利用跨日志生产模型来分析能源和非能源因素.
- 采用回归来缓解参数估计中的多对线性问题.
- 检查了输出弹性,替代弹性和技术进步.
主要成果:
- 在能源和非能源因素之间观察到的规模回报的上升,资本,石油和天然气是主要的生产贡献者.
- 在资本电力,天然气电力和石油电力之间发现了高的替代弹性,这表明有可能用低碳替代品替代石油.
- 石油电力和天然气电力的技术进步是显著的,影响了排放轨迹.
结论:
- 沙特阿拉伯有潜力通过用天然气和电力取代石油,向低碳能源消费过渡.
- 净零碳中立方案表明,石油-天然气,石油-电力和天然气-电力组合可以在2060年前实现接近零排放.
- 推进技术发展和优化自然资源利用是实现碳中和目标的建议.
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