检查土耳其的婴儿死亡风险,使用时空贝叶斯模型
Sade Kılıç Yıldırım1, Celal Reha Alpar2
1Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara.
Geospatial health
|November 17, 2025
概括
土耳其的婴儿死亡率在2009年至2017年期间大幅下降. 时空贝叶斯模型确定了安纳托利亚东部持续的风险集群,并表明人均GDP的增加降低了婴儿死亡风险.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 土耳其的婴儿死亡率 (IMR) 在2009年至2017年期间显著下降,每1000个活产婴儿死亡人数从13.9人降至9.3人.
- 了解这种下降的驱动因素对于公共卫生政策和干预策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用时空贝叶斯模型研究土耳其婴儿死亡率的下降.
- 确定与婴儿死亡率相关的地理区域 (风险集群) 和时间趋势.
- 评估人均国内生产总值 (GDP) 对婴儿死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 应用参数,非参数的时空贝叶斯模型和贝叶斯通用线性模型.
- 使用集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似 (INLA) 方法进行模型拟合.
- 雇员超值概率,以检测显著的婴儿死亡风险集群.
主要成果:
- 最适合的时空贝叶斯模型强调了非结构化的空间和结构化的时间相互作用随机效应的重要性.
- 从2009年到2017年,每年在东部和东南亚纳托利亚地区确定一致的婴儿死亡风险集群.
- 人均GDP增加1000美元与婴儿死亡率相对风险降低2.8%有关.
结论:
- 时空贝叶斯模型有效地解释了婴儿死亡风险的变化.
- 建议在东部和东南部安纳托利亚进行有针对性的干预,考虑到空间,时间和时空相互作用.
- 人均国内生产总值的增加是减少土耳其婴儿死亡率的一个重要因素.
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