对可解释机器学习与线性回归进行比较评估,用于预测美国县级肺癌死亡率
Soheil Hashtarkhani1, Brianna M White1, Benyamin Hoseini2
1Department of Pediatrics, Center for Biomedical Informatics, College of Medicine, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN.
机器学习准确地预测了肺癌死亡率. 吸烟率,房屋价值和西班牙裔人口百分比是关键因素,差异集中在美国中东地区.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 肺癌 (LC) 是美国癌症死亡的主要原因之一.
- 准确的LC死亡率预测对于干预和解决健康差异至关重要.
- 可解释的机器学习提供了比传统模型更好的预测和洞察的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 预测美国各地县级肺癌死亡率.
- 为了比较随机森林 (RF),梯度增强回归 (GBR) 和线性回归 (LR) 模型的性能.
- 确定影响LC死亡率的关键因素,分析地理差异.
主要方法:
- 应用RF,GBR和LR模型来预测美国县级LC死亡率.
- 使用R平方和根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 评估模型性能.
- 使用Shapley添加式解释 (SHAP) 进行变量重要性和Getis-Ord (Gi*) 进行空间热点分析.
主要成果:
- 射频模型实现了最高的预测准确度 (R平方:41.9%,RMSE:12.8).
- 关键预测因素包括吸烟率,房屋价值中位数和西班牙裔人口百分比.
- 在美国中东各县发现了显著的LC死亡热点.
结论:
- 射频模型提供了对LC死亡率的优异预测.
- 吸烟率,住房价值和西班牙裔人口百分比是关键因素.
- 研究结果支持高风险地区的有针对性的干预措施和减少健康差异的战略.
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