高分辨率的全球途径,在2030年实现100%的电力供应
Victhalia Zapata1, Anteneh G Dagnachew2, Oreane Y Edelenbosch3
1Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands. v.h.zapatacastillo@uu.nl.
Scientific reports
|November 17, 2025
概括
到2030年实现通用电力供应需要探索新的战略. 像迷你电网和太阳能家庭系统这样的离网解决方案是最具成本效益的,以达到服务不足的人口,特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 全民获得电力是可持续发展目标的关键,但目前的政策不足以实现2030年目标.
- 了解区域电气化战略和成本是有限的,阻碍了进展.
- 现有的模型缺乏对各种电气化途径的详细分析.
研究的目的:
- 探索到2030年实现通用电力供应的全球情景.
- 确定成本最低的电气化策略及其相关的容量要求.
- 评估将气候变化减缓目标纳入电气化计划的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用来自IMAGE综合评估模型的高分辨率数据和能源预测.
- 制定了考虑基线发展,体面生活水平和气候协同作用的情景.
- 分析了各种电气化策略的成本效益,包括离网解决方案.
主要成果:
- 离网系统 (小型电网,太阳能家庭系统) 是2023年后新连接的最经济的方法.
- 通用接入需要至少70GW的额外离网容量,主要用于撒哈拉以南非洲.
- 整合气候目标提高了可再生能源的使用,减少了约30%的二氧化碳排放,系统成本也相似.
结论:
- 目前的政策不会在2030年前实现通用电力供应.
- 非电网解决方案对于经济高效的电气化至关重要,特别是在发展中国家.
- 将电气化与减缓气候变化相结合,可以提供环境效益,而不会显著增加成本.
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