从碳中立的角度来看,在发达地区进行碳储存的多场景模拟和空间优化
Zhuoyue Peng1,2,3, Mengting Li4, Yaming Liu4
1State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100048, China. pengzy@yzu.edu.cn.
Carbon balance and management
|November 17, 2025
概括
在长江流域等发达地区优化土地利用对于碳储存至关重要. 生态保护方案可以扭转碳损失,创造保护区和经济增长区,以实现碳中和目标.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 区域碳储存的优化对于生态系统的容量和平衡至关重要.
- 发达地区面临着针对性低碳战略和特定优化领域的挑战.
- 现有的研究缺乏在发达地区储存碳的详细空间优化.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种发展情景,到2030年预测长江河流域江苏部分 (JS-YRB) 的碳储存模式.
- 使用贝叶斯信念网络 (BBN) 优化碳储存的空间分布.
- 在流域管理中提供可持续土地利用和碳中和目标的参考.
主要方法:
- 利用InVEST和PLUS模型进行碳储存预测和空间模式分析.
- 采用贝叶斯信念网络 (BBN) 进行决策优化和空间模式优化.
- 模拟了三个场景:自然发展,耕地保护和生态保护到2030年.
主要成果:
- 从2000年到2020年,JS-YRB的碳储量减少了47.98×10^6,主要是由于土地转化为建筑区.
- 2030年的生态保护场景预测碳储量增加 (390.58 × 10^6),而其他场景显示碳储量下降.
- BBN确定了关键变量,并将该地区划分为四个最佳区域:生态保护,耕地保护,水资源保护和经济建设.
结论:
- 土地利用变化对区域碳储存有重大影响.
- 生态保护战略有效地提高了发达地区的碳储存.
- 该研究为优化土地利用提供了一个框架,以实现可持续发展和碳中和目标.
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