在人类发展的背景下对人类乳病的发病率趋势分析:在伊朗使用结点回归的生态研究
Marziyeh Hamyali-Ainvand1, Mohammad Ebrahimi2
1Student Research Committee, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran. hamyali-m@medilam.ac.ir.
BMC public health
|November 18, 2025
概括
伊朗的人类百菌病 (HB) 发病率呈现轻微上升趋势,更高的人类发展可能与较低的疾病发病率有关. 然而,其他因素,如兽医护理和监测质量,也在这种公共卫生问题中发挥着作用.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 社会经济因素 社会经济因素
背景情况:
- 人类血病 (HB) 是伊朗的一个重大公共卫生问题.
- 社会发展因素可能会影响HB的负担.
- 本研究分析了与人类发育相关的长期HB发病率趋势.
研究的目的:
- 为了探索伊朗HB发病率的长期模式.
- 调查HB发病率与人类发育之间的关联.
- 使用统计模型识别HB的时间趋势.
主要方法:
- 在2000年至2023年期间对HB发病率的关节点回归分析.
- 包括人类发展指数 (HDI) 作为预测指标.
- 斯皮尔曼相关性和对日志转换的HDI的线性回归,具有残余诊断和强大的回归.
主要成果:
- 整体HB发病率呈现出轻微但显著的上升趋势 (AAPC +0.45%).
- 通过Joinpoint回归,确定了四个重要的趋势变化.
- 在HB发病率和HDI之间发现了中度负相关性 (ρ = -0.54) 和逆相关性 (β = -65.96,p = 0.044),解释差异有限 (R2 = 0.226).
结论:
- 较高的国家人类发展水平可能与降低的HB发病率相关.
- 不测量的因素,如兽医护理的准入,文化习惯和监视质量可能会影响这种关联.
- 生态研究设计和潜在的报告不足需要在解释结果时谨慎.
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