环境因素对害虫种群的影响使用多变量联合集成模型:来自印度的证据
Himadri Shekhar Roy1, Ranjit Kumar Paul1, Md Yeasin1
1ICAR-Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi, India.
Environmental entomology
|November 18, 2025
概括
极端天气影响农业害虫,影响作物产量. 这项研究使用协同整合来表明温度和湿度显著影响害虫种群,这对于作物保护战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 害虫和疾病的流行严重影响农业生产率,特别是在极端天气条件下.
- 传统的统计方法不足以分析复杂的天气-害虫相互作用.
- 了解这些动态对于可持续农业和粮食安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查印度地瓜种植中的害虫发生和气候变量之间的动态因果关系.
- 量化环境因素 (如温度,相对湿度和降雨量) 对害虫种群的影响.
- 应用先进的计量经济学技术来更准确地分析这些相互作用.
主要方法:
- 使用了协同集成和矢量错误校正模型 (VECM) 技术.
- 分析了印度三个主要的生长花生州的数据:安得拉邦,古吉拉特邦和泰米尔纳德邦.
- 包含的关键环境变量:温度,相对湿度和降雨量.
主要成果:
- 约翰森的测试证实了害虫种群和气候条件之间的长期平衡关系.
- 格兰杰因果关系测试表明,温度和相对湿度对害虫的发生有单向的因果影响.
- 冲动响应功能表明,温度和相对湿度冲击对害虫发生率产生了实质性和持续的影响.
结论:
- 多变量联合集成有效地模拟了天气和害虫种群之间的复杂相互作用.
- 温度和相对湿度是草种植中害虫动态的关键驱动因素.
- 研究结果为开发农业中适应气候变化的害虫管理策略提供了宝贵的见解.
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