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通过数字平台的用户活动数据解释COVID-19动态,使用Yandex的自我隔离指数作为案例研究
Piotr Żebrowski1, Grigory Boyarshinov2, Anastasia Odintsova2
1Advancing Systems Analysis Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria. zebrowsk@iiasa.ac.at.
Scientific reports
|November 19, 2025
概括
数字平台可以通过自我隔离指数跟踪人与人之间的接触强度. 这项研究证实,这些指数准确地反映了社会距离遵守和COVID-19趋势.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 社交距离对于控制流行病至关重要,但具有社会经济成本和可变的有效性.
- 为了有效应对流行病,需要精确测量人与人接触和政策遵守.
- 数字平台提供了在卫生危机期间实时监测人口行为的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 探索来自数字平台的复合指数作为人与人接触强度的代理的实用性.
- 评估Yandex自我隔离指数作为社会距离遵守的衡量标准.
- 测试自我隔离指数和COVID-19病例/死亡数据之间的协同整合.
主要方法:
- 利用Yandex的自我隔离指数,汇总多个数字活动数据源.
- 开发了两种经过纠错的自回归分布式滞后模型,灵感来自SIR模型.
- 测试了自我隔离指数和莫斯科和圣彼得堡的官方COVID-19数据之间的协同整合.
主要成果:
- 发现了自我隔离指数和COVID-19病例和死亡人数之间的协同整合证据.
- 证实COVID-19流行曲线可以通过指数测量的人与人接触强度来解释.
- 证明自我隔离指数是社会距离遵守的可靠实时指标.
结论:
- 自隔离指数作为人与人接触强度的有价值的实时代理.
- 这一指数可以通过表明遵守社交距离措施,有效地告知决策者.
- 研究结果支持使用数字平台数据在流行病期间校准公共卫生干预措施.
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