开发和验证一个多变量模型,以确定尼日利亚口腔癌查候选人
John Adeoye1,2, Seidu A Bello3, Abdulwarith Akinshipo4
1Faculty of Dentistry, Division of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. jaadeoye@connect.hku.hk.
Communications medicine
|November 19, 2025
概括
一个新的口腔癌风险模型准确地识别了尼日利亚的高风险个人,使用烟草使用和饮食等因素. 这有助于针对性查,以更好地预防和早期发现口腔癌.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 口腔癌查对于早期检测和预防至关重要,特别是在高风险人群中.
- 有针对性的查需要准确识别面临口腔癌风险的个体.
- 在特定群体中分析风险因素对于有效的查策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在一个大规模的尼日利亚队伍中分析口腔癌风险因素.
- 开发一个口腔癌风险分层的预测模型.
- 为了允许针对性地选择参与者进行口腔癌查.
主要方法:
- 一项涉及4049名尼日利亚人的社区口腔癌查的多中心横截面研究.
- 由训练有素的人员进行视觉口腔检查,以检测口腔癌和癌前病变.
- 对30个风险因素的多变量分析,以构建口腔癌风险的预测模型.
主要成果:
- 检测到127例口腔癌和癌前病变.
- 确定的重大风险因素包括烟草/吸烟,酒精,饮食 (少吃水果/蔬菜,多吃红肉/加工肉,少吃香料) 和并发症.
- 开发的预测模型实现了0.74的AUC和0.27的Youden指数,超过了传统方法.
结论:
- 与传统方法相比,开发的风险预测模型显示出优越的歧视和净收益.
- 这种模型有效地识别出具有口腔癌高风险的个体.
- 这些发现支持该模型用于有针对性的口腔癌查计划的应用.
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