洪水对城市交通网络的影响,考虑到洪水的传播
Yimeng Liu1, Alistair Ford2, Richard Dawson2
1Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, 519087, China; School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, 519807, China; DARe Hub, Newcastle University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, United Kingdom.
Journal of environmental management
|November 19, 2025
概括
城市洪水破坏了交通,造成了重大的经济和环境影响. 一个新的动态框架量化了这些影响,揭示了时机对交通成本至关重要,早期警告对性至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 城市规划是城市规划.
- 运输工程 运输工程 运输工程
背景情况:
- 城市洪水对交通网络构成重大威胁,影响了流动性和空气质量.
- 现有的研究往往缺乏规模和综合方法,以充分捕捉对运输的间接洪水影响.
研究的目的:
- 引入和验证一个动态框架来量化城市洪水对交通网络的间接经济和环境影响.
- 分析洪水时间和强度对交通中断和相关成本的影响.
主要方法:
- 动态合水力动力洪水模型 (CADDIES-2D) 与基于代理的运输模型 (SUMO).
- 在各种降雨情景下,将综合框架应用于北京2267平方公里的区域.
- 通过比较基线交通成本与不同洪水条件下的中断成本来量化经济影响.
主要成果:
- 早上7点发生5年一次的风暴会使基础交通成本翻一番;早上8点和9点发生的同样的风暴会使成本分别增加60.32%和35.82%.
- 洪水破坏的影响与降雨强度和交通量有非线性关系.
- 该框架成功评估了大规模,复杂的城市洪水相关的交通中断.
结论:
- 动态框架提供了一个强大的和可转移的工具,用于评估交通网络对城市洪水的脆弱性.
- 调查结果强调了时机在洪水相关交通中断中的关键作用,以及早期预警系统的重要性.
- 这种方法支持有针对性的适应投资和实时交通管理策略,以提高城市的弹性.
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