气候异常和股市动态:经验分析的证据
A Akshaya1, B V Gopalakrishna1
1School of Humanities, Social Sciences and Management, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, Mangalore, India.
Journal of environmental management
|November 19, 2025
概括
气候变化影响股票市场. 气温上升增加了短期市场波动,而降水增加提供了长期稳定性,影响了投资者对风险的看法.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 金融市场 金融市场
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化,定义为平均气候参数的长期变化,具有重大经济影响.
- 了解气候异常对金融市场的影响对于经济稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 实证地研究温度和降水异常对股票市场波动的影响.
- 为气候披露政策和危险管理策略提供见解.
主要方法:
- 使用了从1996年到2024年的每月长期时间序列数据 (348个观察).
- 使用自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 和非线性ARDL (NARDL) 模型来测试经验关联.
- 使用世界银行数据和GARCH模型结果验证的结果.
主要成果:
- 观察到温度变化对市场波动有显著的短期对称效应 (β = 0.0004,p = 0.010).
- 气温上升加剧了市场不稳定性和投资者不确定性.
- 降水量增加对市场波动有显著的长期稳定作用 (β = -8.91e-06,p = 0.032).
结论:
- 气候变化异常,特别是温度和降水,对股票市场动态有明显的影响.
- 调查结果强调需要积极的风险管理,并为投资者,特别是新兴市场的投资者提供气候披露政策的信息.
- 短期气候冲击增加了投资者的不确定性,而降水可以缓解市场的不稳定性随着时间的推移.
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