在海上运营的二氧化碳排放预测中考虑波浪引起的环境不确定性
Jaewon Jang1, Jong Hun Woo2, Daekyun Oh3
1Professional Human Resources Training for Smart Yard Center, Industry-Academy Cooperation Foundation of Mokpo National Maritime University, Mokpo, 58628, Republic of Korea.
The Science of the total environment
|November 19, 2025
概括
准确估计船舶的温室气体 (GHG) 排放需要考虑波浪阻力. 这项研究引入了一种新的模型,该模型通过包括环境变异性来提高二氧化碳预测的准确性,这对于海洋脱碳至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 海洋工程 海洋工程
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 准确估计来自海运业务的温室气体 (GHG) 排放对于环境影响评估和国际脱碳政策至关重要.
- 当前的二氧化碳预测模型往往忽略了环境的不确定性,例如波引发的阻力,影响现实世界的发动机性能和排放.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个增强的二氧化碳排放预测框架,包括波浪引起的环境变化.
- 为了提高海上二氧化碳排放预测在不同的海洋状态下的准确性.
主要方法:
- 利用经验波数据和蒙特卡洛模拟来解释波引起的环境变化.
- 基于电报模式的发动机操作模型的集成波电阻计算.
- 对传统的基于设计和基于活动的排放预测方法进行了比较分析.
主要成果:
- 通过明确考虑波引发的不确定性,增强的框架显示出更好的预测准确性.
- 传统方法在完全航行场景中可能会低估海上二氧化碳排放量高达86%.
- 与现有方法相比,拟议的模型与实际排放量测量更接近.
结论:
- 波浪引起的不确定性是海上二氧化碳排放建模中的重要,不可忽视的因素.
- 纳入动态海洋学条件对于准确的排放评估至关重要.
- 这些发现支持海事部门加强环境问责制和监管合规性.
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