植物功能性特征的不确定性可以超过原生态系统生产力的气候场景不确定性
Katya R Jay1,2, William R Wieder1,3, Sarah C Elmendorf1,4
1Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, 4001 Discovery Dr., Boulder, CO, 80303, USA.
The New phytologist
|November 20, 2025
概括
植物的功能特征是预测生态系统对全球变化的反应的关键. 特定地点的特征比气候场景更多地改善了原的生产力估计,突出了它们在预测影响中的关键作用.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 生态系统建模 生态系统建模
背景情况:
- 在全球变化下预测物种组成的变化是一项挑战.
- 植物的功能特征将个体植物战略与社区和生态系统层面的反应联系起来.
- 了解功能性特征转移如何调解生态系统对气候变化的反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究植物功能特征在调解生态系统生产力对气候变化反应中的作用.
- 量化特征转移与气候变化情景对未来原生产率不确定性的相对贡献.
- 评估将现场层次测量纳入土地模型的价值.
主要方法:
- 社区土地模型 (CLM) 的点尺度模拟使用特定地点的功能特征和阿尔卑斯山原的现象学观察进行.
- 模拟对现场观测进行了验证.
- 从特定站点参数化的结果与使用默认CLM参数化的结果进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 使用社区特定的功能特征和现象学观察,与默认模拟相比,德拉生态系统的生产力估计得到了显著改善,这些模拟往往会高估生产力.
- 与潜在的植物功能性特征转移相关的不确定性对生态系统生产力结果的影响比不同气候变化情景的不确定性更大.
- 特定地点的测量提高了土地模型预测的准确性.
结论:
- 植物的功能特征在塑造植被对气候变化的反应中起着关键作用.
- 将现场级特征和现象学数据纳入土地模型对于准确预测气候变化对生态系统功能影响至关重要.
- 功能性特征的转变是预测未来原生态系统生产力的重大不确定性来源.
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