预计到2040年,美国艾滋病毒感染的老年人数将增加
Siobhán M O'Connor1, Ruiguang Song1, Alex Viguerie1,2
1Division of HIV Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Open forum infectious diseases
|November 20, 2025
概括
预测显示,到2040年,艾滋病毒感染的老年人 (PWDH) 数量将大幅增加,因此需要为与年龄相关的护理需求制定积极的医疗保健计划.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 被诊断为艾滋病毒感染者 (PWDH) 经历了并发症和过早衰老的增加.
- 在2021年,超过一半的美国PWDH年龄在50岁或以上.
- 预测2030年以后的PWDH年龄分布对于未来的艾滋病毒和老年护理计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测PWDH的年龄分布从2021年到2040年.
- 基于不同的艾滋病毒诊断和死亡率来建模未来的艾滋病毒护理需求.
- 为了告知医疗保健部门为老龄化PWDH人口做好准备.
主要方法:
- 使用基于生命表的模型.
- 雇员 2020-2021年 疾病控制和预防中心 国家艾滋病毒监测系统数据.
- 建模了三个场景,在艾滋病毒诊断和PWDH死亡率的年度百分比变化中存在变化.
主要成果:
- 预计到2040年,PWDH的平均年龄将增加到55-60岁.
- 预计在所有建模场景中,老年PWDH (≥50,≥65,≥75岁) 的数量将大幅增加.
- 即使诊断率降低90%和死亡率降低,到2040年,75%的PWDH将年龄在50岁以上.
结论:
- 无论艾滋病毒诊断趋势如何,到2040年,老年PWDH的数量将大幅增加.
- 医疗保健部门必须为PWDH日益增长的与年龄相关的护理需求做好准备.
- 需要紧急规划,以确保为这个不断增长的人口群体提供足够的未来护理.
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