在土著和非土著人中进行风险评估和重犯:元分析
Robert J W Clift1, James F Hemphill1, Samara Wessel1
1Youth Forensic Psychiatric Services.
Law and human behavior
|November 20, 2025
概括
风险评估工具显示,对于土著和非土著个人,关于复发的预测准确度相似. 需要改进,考虑社会历史背景,以便准确的解释.
科学领域:
- 法医心理学 法医心理学
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 心理测量 心理测量 心理测量
背景情况:
- 风险评估工具在刑事司法中对于预测重犯至关重要.
- 它们对土著人口的应用具有显著的临床,专业和法律利益.
- 现有的研究缺乏在不同的人口统计学方面进行全面的国际比较.
研究的目的:
- 评估三种常见风险评估工具的预测有效性 (黑尔精神病检查清单,服务级别尺度,青年暴力风险结构化评估) 对土著和非土著个人.
- 为了比较这些措施在预测土著和非土著 (白人占多数) 样本之间的一般和暴力重犯的准确性.
- 调查跨年龄组,性别和地理区域 (北美,澳大利亚) 的预测准确度的潜在差异.
主要方法:
- 对来自45项研究的数据进行了一系列元分析,包括86,409名个人.
- 包括来自被征求的研究人员的数据和重新分析的数据集,以最大限度地纳入研究,特别是青少年样本.
- 专注于一般和暴力重犯指数,以评估预测准确度.
主要成果:
- 在土著 (中位数r = .28) 和非土著 (中位数r = .29) 样本中,预测有效率系数是可比的.
- 观察到效应大小的显著异质性,表明预测准确性的变化.
- 跨年龄组,性别和地理区域出现了一些不一致性,土著人服务水平量表总分的预测有效性可能较低.
结论:
- 风险评估措施对土著和非土著人口具有相似的预测效用.
- 调查结果强调了完善和改进现有的风险评估工具的必要性.
- 对结果的解释必须承认更广泛的社会历史背景对观察到的行为的影响.
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