气候变化引发了印度毒蛇热点和蛇咬伤风险的变化
Siddhesh Khandve1, Ashish Kumar Jangid2,3, P C Sreelekha Suresh4
1Department of Wildlife Science, University of Kota, Kota, Rajasthan, 324 005, India.
Scientific reports
|November 20, 2025
概括
气候变化将改变印度的毒蛇息地,到2070年可能会增加北部和东北部地区的蛇咬伤风险. 这凸显了对综合保护和公共卫生战略的需求.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 气候变化影响评估
- 生物多样性建模模型
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁,导致物种分布转移和潜在的灭绝.
- 印度的毒蛇,特别是医学上重要的物种,面临着影响人蛇冲突的分布变化.
- 了解这些变化对于有效的保护和公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化场景下,模拟印度毒蛇生物多样性热点的当前和未来分布.
- 评估人蛇冲突地区的潜在变化,重点关注"四大"毒蛇物种.
- 为印度的毒蛇在全国范围内评估气候驱动的分布变化.
主要方法:
- 编制了来自不同来源的30种毒蛇物种的4966个发生记录.
- 使用MaxEnt与生物气候变量开发了物种分布模型.
- 综合物种特定分布图,以确定2050年和2070年气候情景下的热点和预测空间转移.
主要成果:
- 预测显示,到2070年,印度高达3%的土地面积可能会经历热点周转,西部加特山脉和东北部的收缩,印度中部的扩张.
- "四大"毒蛇的息地适合性与全州的毒蛇咬伤记录正相关.
- 未来的情景预测,印度北部 (包括喜马拉雅山脉),印度东北部和西部高原地区的蛇风险增加.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将大大改变印度各地毒蛇的分布.
- 某些地区息地适合性增加表明人蛇冲突和蛇咬伤发生率上升.
- 将气候驱动的保护计划与适应性公共卫生战略相结合,对于减轻生物多样性丧失和人蛇冲突至关重要.
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