预测临灭绝的药用和食用物种Anoectochilus roxburghii的潜在分布和气候反应,使用优化的MaxEnt模型
Yaqin Hou1,2, Liang Wu3,4, Feng Jiang5
1Department of Pharmacy, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, 637000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Scientific reports
|November 20, 2025
概括
气候变化将使临灭绝的兰花息地向北移动,特别是在高排放的情况下. 保护必须保护南方的避难所,并为Anoectochilus roxburghii建立新的北方种植场所.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 生物地理学是生物地理学.
背景情况:
- 危物种需要适应气候变化的保护策略.
- 医学上有价值的兰花Anoectochilus roxburghii由于特定的息地需求而受到气候变化的威胁.
研究的目的:
- 预测Anoectochilus roxburghii从最后一个冰川最大期到2070年代的分布动态.
- 在各种气候场景下,为这个临灭绝的兰花制定保护战略.
主要方法:
- 利用一个优化的最大值 (MaxEnt) 模型与物种发生数据和环境变量.
- 根据过去,现在和未来的气候场景 (SSP126,SSP585) 预计适合息地.
- 确定了最冷季度的平均温度 (bio11) 和年度降雨量 (bio12) 作为关键限制因素.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型表现出色 (AUC = 0.965).
- 历史模拟显示,在冰川时期息地收缩,在间冰川时期扩张.
- 未来的预测表明北方息地扩张显著,在SSP585情景下加速.
结论:
- 这些发现支持通过确定稳定的南方避难所和新适合的北方地区来主动保护.
- 建议包括加强现场保护,从弱势群体收集胚胎血,并指导种植工作.
- 保护行动对于减轻气候变化影响和减少对野生Anoectochilus roxburghii种群的压力至关重要.
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