盐度变化的增加对和它们的捕食者都造成了伤害,抵消了对人口动态的预测影响
Christian J C Commander1,2, Laura S Storch3, Lakeia Kyles2
1Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, North Carolina, USA.
The Journal of animal ecology
|November 21, 2025
概括
气候变化可能会增加盐度的变化,但它对东部 (Crassostrea virginica) 和它们的捕食者的影响是复杂的. 意想不到的是,由于低盐度事件的捕食者抑制,盐度变化增加对种群的影响很小.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 人口动态 人口动态
背景情况:
- 东部 (Crassostrea virginica) 是生态和经济上至关重要的河口物种,面临盐度波动的威胁.
- 南部钻 (Stramonita haemostoma) 是一个主要的捕食者,其生存和食依赖于盐度,在高盐度下壮成长,而低盐度会影响其.
- 由于气候变化而增加的盐度变化可能会改变掠食者-猎物动态,可能会加剧对的掠食.
研究的目的:
- 预测盐度变化增加对东部种群及其捕食者 - - 南部的影响.
- 调查环境依赖物种相互作用在预测气候驱动人口变化的作用.
- 评估度调整对河口生态系统捕食者-猎物动态的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种两种整体投影模型,其中包括和钻孔的盐度依赖人口结构.
- 包括基于实验室实验的尺寸结构和盐度依赖的捕食者功能反应.
- 强迫模型使用模拟的盐度时间序列来反映全球气候模型预测的变化增加.
主要成果:
- 与预期相反,盐度变化增加对丰度或准灭绝概率的影响很小.
- 上盐度变化的负面影响在很大程度上被低盐度异常期间钻探掠食的抑制所抵消.
- 灵敏度分析表明,钻井死亡率的增加可以抵消盐度变化的负面影响.
结论:
- 预测气候变化对捕食者-猎物系统的影响需要考虑复杂的,环境依赖的相互作用.
- 盐度变化的对的影响是由捕食者对低盐度条件的反应所缓解的.
- 管理策略,如增加捕食者死亡率,可以减轻气候变化对种群的负面影响.
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