到2030年,青少年代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪性肝病的全球上升令人担忧
1Department of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Ningbo No.2 Hospital, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China.
Acta paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992)
|November 21, 2025
概括
全球青少年脂肪肝病 (MASLD) 发病率将在2030年前上升,特别是在北美. 社会经济差异推动了这些趋势,需要有针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生健康 全球卫生健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 青少年健康 青少年健康
背景情况:
- 代谢相关的性肝病 (MASLD) 是青少年日益关注的问题.
- 了解MASLD的未来负担和社会经济驱动因素对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从2020年到2030年,预测青少年 (15-19岁) 超声诊断的MASLD的全球负担.
- 检查社会经济因素对MASLD发病率,死亡率和残疾的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用通用添加模型 (GAM) 和估计年百分比变化 (EAPC) 进行预测.
- 分析了年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR),死亡率 (ASDR) 和根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALY).
- 使用社会人口指数 (SDI) 进行区域分析和回归模型来量化协会.
主要成果:
- 全球ASIR预计将大幅增长 (EAPC: +1.46%),其中高收入的北美地区增长最快 (EAPC: +2.52%).
- 预计到2030年,低SDI地区的ASIR中位数将是最高的,土库曼斯坦是潜在的热点.
- 较高的SDI与欧洲的高ASIR相关,表明生活方式风险,而在其他地区与减少的DALY/ASDR相关.
结论:
- 社会经济因素和生活方式差异在全球青少年中创造了不同的MASLD趋势.
- 如果没有干预,预计到2030年,MASLD负担将激增,特别是在高收入的北美和特定的低SDI地区.
- 针对特定区域的政策对于解决代谢健康不平等问题和减轻青少年MASLD日益增加的负担至关重要.
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