波动效应对多式联运集装箱港口运营弹性的影响:一个系统动态模拟方法
Jinglin Zhang1, Xuri Xin1, Rameshwar Dubey2,3
1Liverpool Logistics, Offshore and Marine (LOOM) Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 21, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种新的方法,通过量化航运,铁路和卡车运输子系统的效应来衡量港口弹性. 它有助于确定干预的关键领域,以防止多式联运集装箱港的系统故障.
科学领域:
- 海上物流和供应链管理
- 系统工程和运营研究 系统工程和运营研究
- 风险管理和抗灾能力
背景情况:
- 目前的港口性评估忽略了多式联运业务中各子系统间的连锁效应.
- 现有的研究往往缺乏微观层面的操作细节,专注于宏观观点.
- 了解线路运输,料运输,铁路和卡车运输中的级联故障对于全面的弹性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提出和验证一个综合的方法来量化跨多式联运港口子系统的效应.
- 通过考虑微层次的运营影响和相互依赖来评估集装箱港口的弹性.
- 为防止系统性故障和增强长期港口性提供可操作的见解.
主要方法:
- 开发一个系统动态 (SD) 模拟模型,整合关键的弹性变量.
- 创建一个弹性分析模型,将系统性能转化为可量化的指标.
- 证据推理 (ER) 的应用,以全面评估整体港口系统的弹性.
- 利用真实运营和事故数据在各种中断场景下进行验证.
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法有效地评估在各种干扰场景下港口的性能.
- 成功确定了影响整体港口性的关键子系统.
- 该方法支持制定及时和有针对性的恢复策略.
- 使用历史失败和现场调查的验证证实了该方法的有效性.
结论:
- 综合方法提供了一个强大的框架来评估多式联运港口的弹性.
- 量化各个子系统的效应对于理解和减轻系统性风险至关重要.
- 该方法为提高运营弹性和防止港口系统级联故障提供了有价值的见解.
- 这种方法可适应在各种港口环境中评估和增强性.
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