对电力生产企业碳计量机器学习方法的比较研究
Shanli Wang1, Bing Fang2, Jiayi Zhang2
1Hainan Power Grid Co., Ltd, Hai Kou, 570203, China. lk26672qlx97@163.com.
Scientific reports
|November 21, 2025
概括
机器学习准确地预测了燃煤发电厂的碳排放. XGBoost模型的准确度达到90.39%,为碳管理和减排策略提供了至关重要的工具.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源工程 能源工程
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 全球碳中和目标需要精确的排放监测,用于发电.
- 传统的碳核算方法在准确性,适应性和成本上是有限的.
- 机器学习 (ML) 为精确的碳排放预测提供了一个可行的替代方案.
研究的目的:
- 开发和比较ML模型来预测燃煤发电厂的碳排放.
- 确定影响碳排放的关键预测因素.
- 为碳排放计算提供一种高效,准确的方法.
主要方法:
- 采用煤炭发电厂的运行数据 (2024年1月1日至11月30日).
- 应用混合特征选择策略来确定18个关键参数.
- 通过超参数调整开发和优化多重线性回归,XGBoost和LSTM模型.
主要成果:
- 确定了发电,能源结构,运行时间和负载率作为关键预测因素.
- 使用XGBoost模型实现了90.39%的预测准确度.
- 证明了XGBoost在捕获复杂的排放模式方面的能力.
结论:
- XGBoost模型提供了一种高度准确和高效的方法,用于在发电中预测碳排放.
- 这项研究为电力企业的碳管理和减排决策提供了科学基础.
- 基于ML的碳核算支持向碳中和过渡.
相关概念视频
Mechanical Efficiency of Real Machines
1.2K
The mechanical efficiency of a machine is a fundamental concept that describes how effectively a machine can convert input work into output work. According to this concept, the efficiency of a machine is equal to the ratio of the output work to the input work. An ideal machine, meaning a machine that has no energy losses, has an efficiency of one. This implies that the input work and the output work are equal.
However, in reality, no machine can be truly ideal, and all of them experience some...
However, in reality, no machine can be truly ideal, and all of them experience some...
1.2K
Multimachine Stability
535
Multimachine stability analysis is crucial for understanding the dynamics and stability of power systems with multiple synchronous machines. The objective is to solve the swing equations for a network of M machines connected to an N-bus power system.
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
535
Simplified Synchronous Machine Model
733
The Synchronous Machine Model is a fundamental tool in analyzing and ensuring the transient stability of power systems. This model simplifies the representation of a synchronous machine under balanced three-phase positive-sequence conditions, assuming constant excitation and ignoring losses and saturation. The model is pivotal for understanding the behavior of synchronous generators connected to a power grid, particularly during transient events.
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
733
Wind Turbine Machine Models
552
In the growing field of wind energy, incorporating wind turbine models into transient stability analysis is essential. Induction and synchronous machines are the primary models used, with induction machines being prevalent due to their simplicity and reliability.
Induction machines interact through the rotating magnetic field generated by the stator and the rotor. The key parameter is slip, which is the difference between synchronous speed and rotor speed relative to synchronous speed. Slip is...
Induction machines interact through the rotating magnetic field generated by the stator and the rotor. The key parameter is slip, which is the difference between synchronous speed and rotor speed relative to synchronous speed. Slip is...
552
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Algorithms for Numerical Problem Solving
267
Mechanistic models play a crucial role in algorithms for numerical problem-solving, particularly in nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NMEM). These models aim to minimize specific objective functions by evaluating various parameter estimates, leading to the development of systematic algorithms. In some cases, linearization techniques approximate the model using linear equations.
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
267
Fast Decoupled and DC Powerflow
715
The fast decoupled power flow method addresses contingencies in power system operations, such as generator outages or transmission line failures. This method provides quick power flow solutions, essential for real-time system adjustments. Fast decoupled power flow algorithms simplify the Jacobian matrix by neglecting certain elements, leading to two sets of decoupled equations:
715
