全球趋势 (1990-2021年) 和预测到2050年40岁以上成年人中酒精引起的病负担
Donghui Wang1, Jianhua Cui2, Min He1
1Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, #6 Shuangyong Road, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, 530021, China.
BMC public health
|November 22, 2025
概括
与酒精有关的是老年人日益增长的全球健康问题,死亡和残疾人显著增加. 有针对性的酒精控制和区域战略对于管理这种负担至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 中老年和老年人的是一个显著和日益增长的全球健康问题.
- 长期饮酒被认为是导致这种负担的主要可改变的风险因素.
研究的目的:
- 系统地评估40岁及以上成年人与酒精有关的的全球死亡率和发病率.
- 分析时间趋势,并预测到2050年的未来负担.
- 评估性别,社会人口统计指数 (SDI) 和地区的差异,并了解促成因素.
主要方法:
- 利用2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据对204个国家的死亡率和发病率指标 (死亡,DALY,YLD,YLL) 进行分析.
- 使用估计年度百分比变化 (EAPC) 量化时间趋势 (1990-2021年).
- 采用贝叶斯式年龄周期队列 (BAPC),ARIMA和指数平滑 (ES) 来预测到2050年的负担,以及分解和不平等分析.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,与酒精相关的导致了3,003人死亡,241,378人DALYs在40岁以上的成年人.
- 男性的年龄标准化DALY比女性高2.1倍.
- 在1990-2021年间,死亡率上升了67.4%,DALYs上升了64.7%,而年龄标准化率下降了14.5%.
结论:
- 与酒精相关的症在全球老龄化人口中构成了重大的和日益增长的公共卫生挑战.
- 在性别,年龄和地理区域之间存在显著的差异,需要定制干预措施.
- 优先考虑酒精控制措施和区域战略对于针对老龄化社会的公共卫生倡议至关重要.
关键词:
大人的成年人.酒精饮料 酒精饮料 酒精饮料 酒精饮料达利斯 (DALYs) 是一种日用品.人口统计学 人口统计学是一种病.在GBDGBDGBDGBDGBD预测 预测 预测在SDI中,SDI是SDI.更多相关视频
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