最低温度对河流溶解氧气变化的影响在气候过渡区更为明显
Qin Zhang1, Rui Xia2, Kai Zhang2
1State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China; College of Oceanography and Environment, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin, 300457, China; National Joint Research Center for Ecological Conservation and High Quality Development of the Yellow River Basin, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China.
极端温度在气候过渡区显著影响河流溶解氧 (DO). 最低温度是DO波动的主要驱动因素,特别是在加速变暖阶段.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学 水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 在气候过渡区 (CTZ) 中溶解氧 (DO) 动态是复杂的,受温度的影响.
- 将极端温度事件与河流DO波动和季节性变化联系在一起的具体机制仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究极端温度和河流溶解氧气动态在典型的CTZ之间的复杂关系.
- 量化温度极端对DO波动的贡献,了解季节性变化.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个综合的分析框架,使用Loess (STL),XGBoost,Shapley增量解释 (SHAP) 和部分最小平方-结构方程建模 (PLS-SEM) 结合季节趋势分解.
- 应用时间序列分解,因子贡献量化和路径分析来解决复杂的联系和机制.
主要成果:
- 河流域 (FRB) 呈现显著的变暖 (0.368°C/10a),1994年以后温度极端波动扩大.
- 温度极端被确定为DO波动的主要驱动因素 (R2=0.787),最小温度是最有影响力的 (52.7%).
- 在夏季高温期间,温度极端对DO的季节性影响更加复杂.
结论:
- 极端温度加剧了CTZ的季节性DO波动,影响了水质.
- 调查结果为气候变化情景下的水资源管理提供了关键的科学参考.
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