美国糖尿病 (DM) 风险的空间贝叶斯模型
Moses Asori1, Kadae Phimia2, Eric Dellmelle3,4
1Department of Earth, Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, 28223, USA. masori@charlotte.edu.
BMC public health
|November 22, 2025
概括
空间分析显示,美国南部的糖尿病风险最高,吸烟和肥胖是显著的因素. 佛罗里达州和缅因州也需要关注有针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 空间统计的空间统计.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 疾病负担的空间定位对于美国有效的卫生资源分配至关重要.
- 之前的研究为检查健康结果的地理差异奠定了基础.
- 这项研究重点关注美国糖尿病的空间分布和风险因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查美国的空间模式,并确定美国糖尿病风险的热点.
- 分析各种环境和生活方式因素与DM风险之间的关联.
- 通过了解DM负担的地理差异,为有针对性的公共卫生干预提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用来自CDC-行为风险因素监测系统 (BRFSS) 的县级DM病例数据.
- 综合空气污染 (PM2.5,NO2),肥胖,最高温度,吸烟和酒数据来自各种来源.
- 使用集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似法 (INLA) 和空间自相对应局部指标 (LISA) 进行空间建模.
主要成果:
- 糖尿病 (DM) 风险分布非随机,具有显著的空间自身相关性 (莫兰的I = 0.428,p < 0.001).
- 提升的DM风险集中在美国南部,特定的县超过2.5个标准偏差超过全国平均水平.
- 吸烟 (RR=1.083) 和肥胖 (RR=1.007) 显著增加了DM风险,而最高温度,NO2,PM2.5和社会脆弱性指数没有显示出统计学意义.
结论:
- 美国南部被确定为患糖尿病负担最高的地区.
- 佛罗里达州和缅因州成为需要集中公共卫生关注的地区,除了美国南部.
- 结果为开发有针对性的干预措施以减轻DM风险提供了关键的见解,尽管该研究的横截面性质.
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