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Updated: Jan 10, 2026

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蒸发透气和增强了陆地水产的气候敏感性

Eyal Rotenberg¹, Fyodor Tatarinov², Jonathan D Muller^2,3

¹Earth and Planetary Sciences, The Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel. eyal.rotenberg@weizmann.ac.il.

Nature communications

|November 23, 2025

概括

蒸发转化 (ET) 在全球范围内和,使得水产 (WY) 更容易受到气候变化的影响. 这增加了潮湿地区的洪水风险,使干旱地区的资源受到压力,影响生态系统和社会.

科学领域:

地球系统科学地球系统科学
水文学的水文学
气候科学气候科学

背景情况:

气候变化改变了降水模式,一些地区预计降水量将减少,而另一些地区则预计洪水量将增加.
蒸发透气 (ET) 占土地降水量的60%以上,其余部分包括水产量 (WY).

研究的目的:

调查不同气候和生物群的生态系统蒸发转化 (ET) 的和极限.
评估ET不灵活性如何影响水产 (WY) 对气候变化下的降水变化敏感性.
评估水产作为气候对陆地水资源影响的指标.

主要方法:

对全球蒸发转化 (ET) 和水产 (WY) 数据集的分析.
观察到的ET和度极限与Budyko方程中的理论极限的比较.
利用基于模型的预测来支持对气候影响敏感性的发现.

主要成果:

生态系统蒸发透气 (ET) 的全球和极限约为480 ± 210 mm yr-1,远低于能量有限潜力.
这种ET不灵活性放大了水产 (WY) 对降水变化的敏感性.
模型预测证实湿地地区对洪水的脆弱性增加,干旱地区资源稀缺性加快.

结论:

水产量 (WY) 作为气候变化对陆地水资源影响的更为敏感和综合的指标.
这些发现突出了由于水的可用性变化而对生态系统和社会可持续性的风险增加.
了解ET和对于预测未来气候场景的水文反应至关重要.

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