智能系统用于预测财务结果并支持战略选择

Fengwei Lang¹, Yushu Liu²

¹School of Business Administration, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, 116025, China.

Scientific reports

|November 23, 2025

概括

本研究介绍了一个智能决策支持系统,将财务预测和多标准决策 (MCDM) 结合起来,以帮助战略规划. 该系统使用新的方法来处理不确定性,为导航动态市场的组织提供稳定的排名.

科学领域:

商业战略商业战略
决策科学决策科学决策科学
财务管理财务管理

背景情况:

由于技术的快速变化和不确定性,组织在选择战略倡议方面面临挑战.
长期的财务可持续性和竞争优势取决于有效的战略选择.
现有的决策框架可能会与专家判断的不确定性和不准确性作斗争.

研究的目的:

引入智能决策支持系统 (SDSS),用于在不确定性条件下评估战略选择.
将财务预测与多标准决策 (MCDM) 框架相结合.
开发一个强大而灵活的工具,用于组织战略规划.

主要方法:

使用意见权重标准方法 (OWCM) 以基于专家意见的公正标准权重.
使用复杂图像模糊集 (CPFS) 框架来管理专家判断中的不确定性和不准确性.
开发了一种新的排名方法,即综合规范化技术 (MACONT) 混合聚合,集成增量和乘法聚合.
进行了敏感性分析,并将结果与已建立的MCDM方法 (ERUNS,AROMAN,WASPAS) 进行了比较.

主要成果:

拟议的SDSS可靠地在各种场景中产生稳定的战略选项排名.
该CPFS框架有效地处理专家决策中的犹和不准确性.
马康提供了一个平衡和全面的评估战略替代方案.
敏感性分析证实了生成的排名的稳定性和稳定性.

结论:

开发的SDSS为在动态和不确定的商业环境中进行战略规划提供了强大而灵活的工具.
与传统方法相比,OWCM,CPFS和MACONT的整合为战略决策提供了更好的方法.
决策者可以利用这个系统来提高长期的财务可持续性和竞争优势.

关键词:

金融预测财务预测金融性金融性绩效提升是提高绩效的方法之一.智能决策支持系统智能决策支持系统不确定性建模不确定性建模

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