优化韩国自杀风险预测:使用重新采样方法和机器学习算法对模型性能进行比较
Eunji Lim1,2, Bong-Jo Kim2,3, Boseok Cha2,3
1Department of Psychiatry, Gyeongsang National University Changwon Hospital, Changwon, Republic of Korea.
Psychiatry investigation
|November 23, 2025
概括
这项研究使用机器学习 (ML) 算法和重新采样方法开发了一种优化的韩国自杀预测模型. 随机森林模型与低样本数据在预测自杀念头方面表现出色.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 精神病学是一个精神病学.
背景情况:
- 自杀风险预测对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 机器学习 (ML) 为开发准确的自杀风险预测模型提供了潜力.
- 优化ML模型需要仔细选择算法和数据预处理技术.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个最佳的韩国自杀预测模型,使用各种ML算法和重新采样方法.
- 评估不同ML模型在预测自杀念头方面的表现.
- 确定有效的策略来处理自杀风险预测中的数据不平衡.
主要方法:
- 利用来自韩国国家健康和营养检查调查 (2017年,2019年,2021年) 的数据,针对19岁及以上的个人.
- 应用了五种ML算法:逻辑回归,随机森林 (RF),k-最近邻居,梯度增强和自适应增强.
- 实施不足抽样和过量抽样技术以解决数据不平衡问题.
主要成果:
- 用低样本数据训练的随机森林 (RF) 模型表现出卓越的性能.
- 使用最佳射频模型,获得了0.781的灵敏度和0.870的曲线下面积 (AUC).
- 确定RF模型在预测韩国人口中自杀念头方面非常有效.
结论:
- 开发的ML模型为预测韩国自杀风险提供了一个有希望的工具.
- 进一步验证这一ML模型可以提高对自杀风险因素的预测.
- 将个人,社会和环境因素整合到ML模型中可以改善自杀风险评估.
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