印度洋双极驱动着进口主导的登革热疫情在中国:机制和预测
Jian Ma1,2, Lei Xu1,2, Qian Han3
1Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
PNAS nexus
|November 24, 2025
概括
大规模的气候模式,如印度洋双极 (IOD) 和人类运动,显著推动了中国国内的登革热疫情. 这些因素,特别是不断加剧的IOD,预测了未来的疫情爆发,突出了对疾病传播的"失调影响".
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 尽管受到气候动态和人类流动的影响,但在非流行地区的登革热疫情的了解很少.
- 评估气候,流动性和环境因素的相互作用对于预测和管理登革热传播至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估大规模气候特征和人类流动对中国国内登革热疫情的影响.
- 利用气候和流动性数据开发登革热爆发的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对中国登革热发病率数据 (2013-2021) 和预测 (2023-2028) 的分析.
- 纳入气候数据 (印度洋二极管指数),人类流动性和环境因素.
- 应用极端梯度增强 (XGBoost) 算法用于疫情预测.
主要成果:
- 国内登革热发病率与进口病例之间存在强烈的正相关性 (r=0.89).
- 与国内和国际人类流动,印度洋双极 (IOD) 指数和矢量容量发现了重要的关联.
- IOD被确定为最有影响力的气候特征,显示了加剧的趋势.
- 结合IOD的XGBoost模型准确地预测了2025,2026和2028年的疫情 (r2=0.56).
结论:
- 大规模的气候现象,特别是IOD和人类流动是中国国内登革热爆发的关键驱动因素.
- 这些因素对登革热传播动态产生"失调影响".
- 调查结果强调了考虑气候和流动性对于有效的登革热监测和控制战略的重要性.
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