温度和紧急情况部门访问:当今协会和未来预测
Chad Milando1, Ian Sue Wing2, Gregory A Wellenius1
1Boston University School of Public Health.
Research square
|November 24, 2025
概括
气温上升增加了全年在美国的急诊室 (ED) 访问量. 未来的气候变化将大大提高医疗保健利用率,需要系统适应.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化影响 气候变化影响
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
背景情况:
- 高环境温度与死亡率的增加有关.
- 热量和急诊室 (ED) 访问之间的关系不太清楚,之前的研究范围有限.
研究的目的:
- 描述温度与全因ED在全国各地全年访问之间的关联.
- 根据预计的温度变化,对未来的ED访问进行预测.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自美国2,161个县的2100多万个人的健康数据 (2010-2021年).
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 来评估温度响应关系.
- 预计未来的ED访问使用世纪中叶气候模型温度预测 (2040-2050) 在三个共享社会经济路径.
主要成果:
- 每日最高气温的上升与所有季节和美国的ED访问的增加有关.
- 在最高排放场景下,ED访问预计每年将增加1.3%.
- 超过一半的美国县可能会经历每年27+天的高医疗利用率,比目前的水平增加50%.
结论:
- 建立了每日最高气温和急救室访问之间的明确联系,与死亡率不同.
- 未来的气候场景需要增加医疗保健系统的基础ED访问和极端利用日的能力.
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