在SARS-CoV-2感染后自我报告的症状的自然史:在一个潜在的社区基队列中的目标试验仿真
Yanhan Shen1,2, Zach Shahn1,2, McKaylee M Robertson1,2
1Institute for Implementation Science in Population Health (ISPH), City University of New York (CUNY); New York, NY, USA.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|November 24, 2025
概括
感染SARS-CoV-2显著增加了长期COVID症状的风险,包括神经问题和运动不耐受,持续长达12个月. 这项研究强调了感染对长期COVID发展的影响.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 由于非代表性研究和缺乏对照,关于长期COVID症状自然史存在不确定性.
- 以前的研究往往忽略了背景症状的流行,缺乏纵向跟踪.
- 本研究通过使用前性,基于社区的队列和重复症状测量来解决这些局限性.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计长期COVID症状的SARS-CoV-2后感染风险.
- 为了比较感染个体的症状风险与同时未感染的对照.
- 为了澄清长期COVID症状的感染归因负担.
主要方法:
- 对美国长度研究 (2020年3月至2023年12月) 的CHASING COVID队列的分析.
- 感染状况通过自我报告的测试,血清学或CSTE标准 (2021年1月至2022年12月) 确定.
- 模拟24个月的目标试验,比较受感染者和未受感染者,并对混和后续损失进行调整分析.
主要成果:
- 在感染后4-8个月内,22.6%的感染者报告了长期的COVID症状,而未感染的对照人群为11.3% (调整后的风险差异[aRD],11.3%).
- 在9-12个月后,感染者的风险为19.2%,未感染者的风险为12.4% (aRD,6.7%).
- 在两个间隔内,在感染的参与者中观察到神经,自主和运动不耐症症状的持续较高风险.
结论:
- 感染SARS-CoV-2与新出现长期COVID症状的风险增加有关,持续时间长达12个月.
- 使用国家队列,未受感染的对照和目标试验仿真,澄清了感染负担.
- 这些发现支持持续监测和针对长期COVID的预防/护理策略.
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