开发机器学习模型,使用可解释的人工智能来预测脆弱风险,并在社区公共卫生中基于网络的应用
Seungmi Kim1, Byung Kwan Choi2,3,4, Jeong Su Cho2,5,6
1Department of Convergence Medical Science, School of Medicine, Pusan National University, Yangsan, Republic of Korea.
Frontiers in public health
|November 24, 2025
概括
这项研究使用可解释的人工智能确定了韩国老年人虚弱的关键预测因素,开发了一个预测模型和社区健康查的网络应用程序. 这些发现强调了抑郁症,年龄和功能状况是早期发现脆弱性的关键因素.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人工智能的人工智能
背景情况:
- 脆弱性是老龄化人口中一个重要的公共卫生问题,与跌倒,残疾和死亡率的风险增加有关.
- 韩国面临着人口快速老龄化,需要有效的工具来在社区环境中进行脆弱查.
- 现有的脆弱性评估工具往往缺乏可解释性,或者不是基于具有全国代表性的数据.
研究的目的:
- 在韩国老年人中使用K-FRAIL尺度识别虚弱风险的关键预测因素.
- 开发和验证可解释的机器学习 (ML) 脆弱性预测模型.
- 创建一个基于Web的应用程序,以便在公共卫生和临床环境中实际实施.
主要方法:
- 使用2023年全国老年韩国人调查 (NSOK) 来分析10,078名老年人的数据.
- 使用CatBoost与SHapley添加式扩展 (SHAP) 来识别多个领域的15个关键脆弱预测因素.
- 采用嵌套交叉验证和评估模型,使用ROC-AUC,PR-AUC,F1得分,平衡精度和Brier得分.
主要成果:
- SHAP分析显示,抑郁症得分,年龄,日常生活工具活动 (IADL) 计数,睡眠质量和认知作为主要脆弱性预测因素.
- 提升模型,特别是CatBoost,表现出优异的性能 (ROC-AUC = 0.813 ± 0.014).
- 在心理,功能,生活方式,社会和数字领域确定了15个预测因素,构成了预测模型的基础.
结论:
- 开发了一个可解释的ML模型,具有强大的预测性能和足够的校准以进行脆弱性评估.
- 创建了一个用户友好的Web应用程序,以促进这些模型在社区和临床环境中的实际应用.
- 建议进行进一步的外部验证和子组公平性评估,以获得更广泛的临床采用和通用性.
相关概念视频
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
472
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
472
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention I
2.6K
A model is a theoretical way to understand a concept or an idea. Models can overcome barriers to health regardless of diverse economic and cultural backgrounds. In addition, models make the task easier by providing different ways to approach complex issues. There are two major health promotion models: the health belief model and the health promotion model.
The health belief model (HBM) attempts to predict health-related behavior in specific belief patterns. According to the HBM, a person's...
The health belief model (HBM) attempts to predict health-related behavior in specific belief patterns. According to the HBM, a person's...
2.6K
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention II
2.0K
The person's health status fluctuates continually, varying from being in good health to becoming ill and returning to being healthy. To understand the concept of illness prevention, there are two models. First, the health-illness continuum model is a graphic representation of an individual's wellness. It states that a person is considered healthy in the absence of physical disease and the presence of good emotional health.
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results...
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results...
2.0K
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
230
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
230

