矿业行业安全指标的错觉
Raoni Rocha1, Eugênio Paceli Hatem Diniz2, Mário Parreiras3
1Department of Production Engineering, Administration and Economics, Federal University of Ouro Preto (Ufop), Brazil.
International journal of occupational safety and ergonomics : JOSE
|November 24, 2025
概括
采矿业传统的安全指标可能无法预测严重事故. 这项研究发现,轻微事故和重大灾害之间没有相关性,这表明需要新的安全指标.
科学领域:
- 职业安全与健康问题 职业安全与健康问题
- 采矿工程 采矿工程 采矿工程
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 传统的安全指标,如频率和严重性率,以及鸟类金字塔,在采矿领域被广泛使用.
- 这些指标往往通过暗示小事件与整体安全之间的相关性来创造一种虚假的安全感.
- 尽管安全指标的指标看似有利,但仍发生了引人注目的工业灾难.
研究的目的:
- 评估当前矿业安全指标的有效性.
- 调查频繁,不那么严重的事件与罕见,严重/灾难性事故之间的关系.
- 确定传统的安全指标是否准确地反映了采矿风险.
主要方法:
- 采用混合方法方法,分析了来自四家采矿公司的公共和私人数据.
- 该研究研究了轻微安全事故与重大事故风险之间的相关性.
- 数据分析的重点是识别传统安全指标中的偏差.
主要成果:
- 在频繁的,不那么严重的事件和罕见的,更严重的事件之间没有发现显著的相关性.
- 这些发现与诸如伯德金字塔之类的既定安全模型的原则相矛盾.
- 在分析的安全数据中发现了偏差,损害了传统指标的可靠性.
结论:
- 传统的安全指标不足以预测矿业部门的严重和灾难性事故.
- 该研究建议用新的管理方法和活动分析取代当前的指标.
- 通过修订的安全管理策略,可以实现更好的事故预防和灾难性风险的减轻.
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