巴基斯坦辛德沿海地区的气候变化和传染病负担:趋势分析 (2019-2022)
Hira Tariq1, Aamir Alamgir2, Zakir Punar3
1Department of Community Health Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan; Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan.
概括
气候变化对巴基斯坦沿海地区的疟疾和腹等传染病产生重大影响. 气温上升和降雨与疾病发病率的增加相关,需要适应气候变化的卫生系统.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 巴基斯坦辛德省的沿海地区面临着气候敏感传染病带来的重大公共卫生挑战.
- 了解这些疾病的时空动态对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究气候敏感传染病的时空趋势.
- 分析气候变量 (温度,湿度,降雨) 与2019-2022年辛德沿海地区疾病发病率之间的关联.
主要方法:
- 生态时间序列设计利用设施级监测数据 (166个初级卫生中心).
- 来自地面监测器的气象数据 (温度,湿度,降雨) 的分析.
- 疟疾,腹,痢疾和伤寒的发病率的计算; 趋势的曼-肯德尔测试; 气候关联的皮尔森相关性.
主要成果:
- 记录了超过982,000例病例;五岁以下的腹和疟疾是最普遍的.
- 疟疾发病率在季风降雨后的4-6周达到顶峰,在洪水后的Thatta地区出现了显著的激增.
- 观察到疾病发病率与温度,湿度和降水之间存在显著的正相关性,特别是在疟疾和腹方面.
结论:
- 气候变化显然影响了沿海辛德省的传染病模式.
- 迫切需要建立适应气候变化的卫生系统,加强疾病监测,并将气象数据整合到预警系统中.
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