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疫苗选择策略及其对个人和人口福祉的影响
Neil G Bennett1,2, Maddalena Ferranna3,4, Xiaofan Liu5
1CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, City University of New York, New York, New York, USA ferranna@usc.edu neil.bennett@baruch.cuny.edu.
BMJ global health
|November 24, 2025
概括
个人可能会推迟接种疫苗以获得更有效的选择,可能会增加感染和死亡. 政策制定者需要在流行病期间制定疫苗推策略,以平衡个人选择和人口健康.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19疫苗供应受到限制,因此提出了立即接种疫苗的建议.
- 个人选择等待"更有效"的疫苗,造成了个人利益和公共福祉之间的冲突.
研究的目的:
- 模拟个体延迟接种疫苗的情况,以获得"更有效"的疫苗.
- 评估个人利益选择与适合人群的最佳疫苗接种策略之间的一致性.
- 调查个人主义的疫苗接种决策对人口健康的影响.
主要方法:
- 综合数学流行病学和经济决策模型.
- 分析了不同疫苗特征和流行病严重程度的场景.
- 检查了偏离人口水平最佳疫苗接种的后果.
主要成果:
- 立即接种疫苗并不总是适合人群;对未来疫苗的不确定性可能有利于等待.
- 群体免疫力可能会激励人们等待更有效的疫苗,超过人口最佳值.
- 自私的选择导致在等待期间感染和死亡的增加.
结论:
- 调查结果为决策者在流行病期间制定疫苗建议提供了信息.
- 当早期疫苗效果较差时,策略可以减轻疾病传播.
- 建议旨在通过调整个人和公共卫生目标来减少感染和挽救生命.
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