为小麦黄病传播动态进行数学建模和分析
Abayneh Kebede Fantaye1,2, Mohammed Yiha Dawed3, Kassahun Getnet Mekonen3
1Department of Mathematics, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia. abayk400@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|November 25, 2025
概括
小麦黄 (WYR) 显著影响全球小麦产量. 数学模型显示,战略性杀菌剂应用是控制这种破坏性小麦疾病传播的关键.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 植物病理学 植物病理学
背景情况:
- 小麦黄 (WYR) 对全球小麦生产和农民生计构成重大威胁.
- 这种疾病造成了巨大的损害,特别是在发展中国家,影响了粮食安全和农业经济.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析一个分区数学模型,以了解小麦作物中的WYR传输动态.
- 调查无病和流行病状态的稳定性,并确定影响疾病传播的因素.
主要方法:
- 为WYR制定一个隔间数学模型.
- 对模型属性的分析,包括解决方案的存在,独特性,积极性和局限性.
- 应用下一代矩阵来计算基本复制数 (R0).
- 使用罗斯-赫尔维茨稳定性标准,中心多重函数理论和利亚普诺夫函数进行稳定性分析.
- 使用MATLAB进行灵敏度分析和数值模拟.
主要成果:
- 该研究确定了数学模型的解决方案的存在和独特性.
- 分析确定了无病和特有平衡点的局部和全球稳定性.
- 计算了基本的繁殖数,为疾病持续性提供了一个值.
- 灵敏度分析确定了影响WYR传输的关键参数.
结论:
- 有效的杀菌剂应用对于管理和预防小麦黄的传播至关重要.
- 数学模型为WYR流行病学和控制策略提供了宝贵的见解.
- 这些发现支持基于证据的干预措施,以减轻由于WYR造成的作物损失.
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