在HFMD传播中的气象,行为和社会决定因素:在中国广州的一项建模研究
Yanying Mo1, Lingming Kong1, Yangling Shen1
1School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, People's Republic of China.
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|November 25, 2025
概括
手足口病 (HFMD) 的传播是由绝对湿度和在线搜索趋势所驱动的. 公共卫生干预措施显著减少了HFMD爆发,突出了综合预测模型的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 手足口病 (HFMD) 是中国的一个重大公共卫生问题,其特点是季节性爆发.
- 了解影响HFMD传播的复杂因素对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过整合气象,行为和社会因素,调查广州HFMD的传播动态.
- 开发和验证用于预测HFMD爆发的机械模型.
主要方法:
- 使用了2012-2022年HFMD监测数据.
- 采用回归分析和机械传输模型,包括绝对湿度 (AH),百度搜索指数 (BDI) 和假日效应.
- 使用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛 (MCMC) 方法对模型进行校准.
主要成果:
- 该模型解释了HFMD病例中91.4%的变异,平均时间变化的复制数为2.29.
- 绝对湿度和BDI被确定为HFMD传播的重要非线性驱动因素.
- 假期与21.3%的平均发病率下降有关.
- 在COVID-19大流行期间,非药物干预导致HFMD大幅减少 (2020年88.1%,2021年36.6%,2022年72.2%).
结论:
- 综合建模方法有效地捕捉了HFMD季节性的多因素驱动因素.
- 开发的模型提供了一个强大的工具,用于预测HFMD爆发,并告知有针对性的公共卫生干预.
相关概念视频
What is Climate?
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
Infectious Diseases and Their Occurrence
Infectious diseases appear in populations through various transmission patterns, influenced by pathogen characteristics, population immunity, environmental conditions, and social behavior. Understanding these patterns is essential for effective public health surveillance and intervention. These categories—sporadic, outbreak, epidemic, pandemic, and endemic—help frame the nature and scope of disease events.Sporadic diseases occur irregularly and infrequently, without a predictable temporal or...
Investigation of Disease Outbreaks
Multistate foodborne outbreaks pose significant public health risks and require meticulous investigation to identify sources and implement control measures. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) utilizes a dynamic seven-step process for these investigations, integrating data from laboratories, interviews, and environmental assessments to protect public health.Outbreak Detection: The detection of multistate outbreaks typically begins with PulseNet, the CDC's national laboratory...
Yellow Fever
Yellow fever is a viral hemorrhagic disease caused by the yellow fever virus (YFV), a member of the Flaviviridae family. It is transmitted primarily by Aedes and Haemagogus mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions of Africa and South America. After transmission through a mosquito bite, the virus initially replicates in skin-resident immune cells such as dendritic cells and macrophages. These cells then migrate to the lymph nodes, where viral replication increases, eventually leading to...
Influenza
Influenza is an acute, highly communicable viral disease that affects the respiratory tract and is responsible for seasonal epidemics worldwide. Influenza A is the most prevalent type associated with widespread outbreaks and is subtyped based on two surface glycoproteins: hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N), as in H1N1. These glycoproteins are essential for viral infectivity, transmission, and immune recognition. Transmission occurs primarily through respiratory droplets and contaminated...


