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氨化肥生产中的水资源短缺风险对全球粮食安全构成威胁
Lorenzo Rosa1, Andrea Citrini1, Tom Terlouw1,2,3
1Biosphere Sciences & Engineering, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, California 94305, United States.
Environmental science & technology
|November 25, 2025
概括
全球氨生产对于食品至关重要,面临着严重的水资源短缺风险. 这影响了数百万人的粮食安全,强调了需要将水的可用性纳入气候和贸易政策的必要性.
科学领域:
- 农业化学 农业化学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 全球粮食安全 全球粮食安全
背景情况:
- 氨的生产对全球粮食供应至关重要,为数十亿人提供食物.
- 目前关于生产氨的研究主要关注排放和成本,忽视了水的使用和稀缺性.
- 水的稀缺性对氨的生产和全球粮食系统构成了一个研究不足但至关重要的风险.
研究的目的:
- 量化全球氨生产中的水消耗.
- 评估全球各个氨生产设施的水稀缺风险.
- 通过肥料贸易分析全球水压力再分配及其对粮食安全的影响.
主要方法:
- 在全球406个氨生产厂的水消耗量化.
- 评估每家工厂每年的缺水暴露情况.
- 绘制全球肥料贸易路线的地图,以追踪水压力再分配.
- 人口的估计依赖于用水稀缺地区的肥料生产的食物.
主要成果:
- 全球大约18%的氨产量 (33万NH3年) 在每年缺水的条件下产生.
- 406个氨厂的地理集中度增加了该部门对当地水资源短缺的脆弱性,这将产生全球影响.
- 五个主要出口国 (中国,俄罗斯,埃及,沙特阿拉伯,卡塔尔) 提供了全球一半的肥料出口,将6.37亿人的粮食安全与水资源紧张地区的生产联系起来.
- 主要进口国 (巴西,美国,印度) 通过国际贸易路线 (如卡塔尔-美国,卡塔尔-巴西,中国-巴西) 面临水资源短缺的间接风险.
结论:
- 氨生产中的水资源短缺是全球粮食系统面临的系统性风险,而不仅仅是局部问题.
- 互联的全球贸易网络放大了局部水资源短缺的影响.
- 水的可用性必须纳入氨生产的脱碳战略和国际贸易政策,以确保未来的粮食安全.
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