干旱地小麦产量和产量变化对伊朗各气候区气候变化的反应
Ebrahim Ensan1, Vahideh Ansari1, Habibollah Salami2
1Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, P.O. Box: 31587-11167, Karaj, Iran.
Scientific reports
|November 25, 2025
概括
到2030年代,气候变化将大大减少伊朗的干旱地区小麦产量,特别是在温暖干燥的地区. 适应策略,如调整种植日期,对于未来的农业弹性至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球粮食安全构成重大威胁,影响作物产量和农业稳定.
- 在不断变化的气候条件下预测小麦产量变化对于农业的战略规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对干旱地区小麦产量的影响及其在伊朗不同气候区的变化.
- 分析在关键作物现象学阶段对温度和降水变化的产量反应.
主要方法:
- 使用基于时刻的回归模型,混合物概率分布函数和模拟模型.
- 分析了伊朗6个气候区的1991-2018年的数据.
- 评估对小麦产量的影响和现象学阶段的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计到2030年代,气候变化将大大降低小麦产量,并增加温暖和温暖干燥区域的变化.
- 预计全国干旱地小麦产量将下降6.74%,在温暖的地区减少12.91%,在温暖干燥的地区减少20.20%.
- 产量对温度和降水的敏感性因气候区和作物生长阶段而异,突出需要局部适应.
结论:
- 时空分析对于开发有效的小麦种植气候智能适应策略至关重要.
- 转移种植和调整种植日期等策略可以减轻不利的气候影响,提高农业的适应力.
- 了解对气候变量的特区和现象反应是确保未来粮食安全的关键.
相关概念视频
What is Climate?
20.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
20.4K
Responses to Drought and Flooding
11.9K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
11.9K
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
27.9K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
27.9K
Responses to Salt Stress
14.4K
Salt stress—which can be triggered by high salt concentrations in a plant’s environment—can significantly affect plant growth and crop production by influencing photosynthesis and the absorption of water and nutrients.
14.4K
Responses to Heat and Cold Stress
14.6K
Every organism has an optimum temperature range within which healthy growth and physiological functioning can occur. At the ends of this range, there will be a minimum and maximum temperature that interrupt biological processes.
14.6K
Factors Affecting Workability
281
The workability of concrete is a critical characteristic that influences the ease of mixing, handling, and finishing the concrete. It is affected by several factors including water content, aggregate properties, and admixtures like air entrainment. Water plays a fundamental role as it lubricates the concrete mix, facilitating easier movement and placement. However, the water requirement varies depending on the texture and shape of aggregates. Finer particles and angular, rough-textured...
281


