考虑到风能和光伏不确定性的虚拟发电厂的可信度评估
Chaojie Li1, Jiang Dai2, Silin Zhu2
1Electric Power Research Institute of Guizhou Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guiyang, 550002, China.
Scientific reports
|November 25, 2025
概括
这项研究利用先进的预测和风险意识优化,优化了可再生能源不确定性下的虚拟发电厂 (VPP) 调度. 新的框架大大减少了预期的缺口,提高了系统可靠性.
科学领域:
- 能源系统工程 能源系统工程
- 整合可再生能源的整合
- 在不确定性下的优化.
背景情况:
- 虚拟发电厂 (VPPs) 面临着由于依赖天气的可再生能源而面临的调度挑战.
- 准确的预测和强大的优化对于可靠的VPP运营至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在预测不确定性下,开发一个决策框架,共同优化VPP的容量分配和运营调度.
- 评估VPP的概率预测方法和分布稳定优化 (DRO) 模型.
主要方法:
- 贝叶斯神经网络 (BNN),量子回归森林 (QRF) 和梯度增强决策树 (GBDT) 的比较,用于风能和太阳能预测.
- 制定一个DRO模型与瓦斯斯坦模两可的设置和有条件的风险价值 (CVaR) 目标.
- 使用从可再生能源和城市负载的风格化VPP系统的经验数据进行评估.
主要成果:
- 贝叶斯神经网络 (BNN) 在概率预测中表现优异.
- 与确定性方法相比,拟议的DRO模型将预期缺口降低了高达78%.
- 增加的CVaR信心提高了可靠性,从95.1%提高到99.7%,利有所下降.
结论:
- 综合概率建模和风险意识优化对于可靠和高效的VPP运营至关重要.
- 开发的框架有效地管理VPP调度规划中的预测不确定性.
- 该研究量化了预测错误对VPP发货不确定性的影响.
相关概念视频
Maximum Power Flow and Line Loadability
578
The maximum power flow for lossy transmission lines is derived using ABCD parameters in phasor form. These parameters create a matrix relationship between the sending-end and receiving-end voltages and currents, allowing the determination of the receiving-end current. This relationship facilitates calculating the complex power delivered to the receiving end, from which real and reactive power components are derived.
578
Wind Turbine Machine Models
552
In the growing field of wind energy, incorporating wind turbine models into transient stability analysis is essential. Induction and synchronous machines are the primary models used, with induction machines being prevalent due to their simplicity and reliability.
Induction machines interact through the rotating magnetic field generated by the stator and the rotor. The key parameter is slip, which is the difference between synchronous speed and rotor speed relative to synchronous speed. Slip is...
Induction machines interact through the rotating magnetic field generated by the stator and the rotor. The key parameter is slip, which is the difference between synchronous speed and rotor speed relative to synchronous speed. Slip is...
552
The Power Flow Problem and Solution
790
Power flow problem analysis is fundamental for determining real and reactive power flows in network components, such as transmission lines, transformers, and loads. The power system's single-line diagram provides data on the bus, transmission line, and transformer. Each bus k in the system is characterized by four key variables: voltage magnitude Vk, phase angle δk, real power Pk, and reactive power Qk. Two of these four variables are inputs, while the power flow program computes...
790
Turbine-Governor Control
906
Turbine-governor control is crucial for maintaining power system stability by balancing turbine mechanical power output with electrical load demand. This mechanism ensures that generator frequency and rotor speed are within acceptable limits during load variations. Turbine-generator units store kinetic energy due to their rotating masses; this energy is released to meet the load requirement when the load increases. The electrical torque of turbines rises to meet the demand, whereas the...
906
Power in a Three-Phase Circuit
586
Three-phase systems have two configurations: the wye and delta. A star configuration can be three or four wires; in a delta configuration, the components are connected in a closed loop. Instantaneous power refers to the power value at a precise moment, and in a balanced three-phase system, it is constant. This is because the sum of the instantaneous powers in the three phases remains steady over time, despite individual fluctuations, due to the symmetry and phase relationship. The total...
586
Control of Power Flow
660
There are several methods to control power flow in power systems:
660


