对热带气旋的生育反应:因果证据和机制
Ha Trong Nguyen1, Francis Mitrou1
1The Kids Research Institute Australia & The University of Western Australia, Australia.
Journal of health economics
|November 26, 2025
概括
严重的热带气旋永久降低澳大利亚的生育率. 这种影响对年轻的成年人和教育程度较低或有保险的人来说最为显著,这是由压力和家庭损坏等因素所驱动的.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 自然灾害频率和严重程度的增加带来了风险.
- 降低生育率是一个全球性问题.
研究的目的:
- 量化热带气旋对澳大利亚生育能力的因果关系影响.
- 为了确定影响生育决策的途径,旋风后.
主要方法:
- 个别固定效应模型,对风暴露的外源变化.
- 对澳大利亚生育年龄的澳大利亚人生育能力变化的分析.
主要成果:
- 五级旋风会导致大量的,永久的生育率下降.
- 随着距离旋风眼的距离,其冲击力会减少.
- 影响集中在年轻人,受教育程度较低,没有孩子和没有保险的人群中.
结论:
- 热带气旋显著影响生殖决策.
- 机制包括心理压力,家庭损害和关系不稳定.
- 调查结果为灾难准备和人口政策提供了信息.
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